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07-08-2021, 04:57 AM
[Only registered and activated users can see links] ([Only registered and activated users can see links]) [Only registered and activated users can see links] ([Only registered and activated users can see links]) Week 1 NFL picks, predictions.NFL picks and predictions are difficult enough in Week 1 of a given season when we know so little about how offseason roster changes will manifest on the field. Now we're picking NFL games to open a season defined by changes amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Welcome to 2020.Only two of the 16 games on the Week 1 NFL schedule will feature fans in the stands, as the Chiefs and Jaguars will allow a small percentage of their stadiums' capacities to be filled. So the typical home-field advantage attached to the odds for each game is not as much of a factor.However, team travel for away games during the coronavirus pandemic is extra stressful, so the teams scheduled to make lengthy trips in Week 1 will be the first to deal with the NFL's extensive health and safety protocols for teams on the road.Per tradition, the Week 1 NFL schedule begins with the defending Super Bowl champions — this year the Chiefs — hosting the Thursday night season-opener, and it ends with a "Monday Night Football" doubleheader.Here are our Week 1 NFL picks straight up, all the way through that pair of Monday night games.Prisco's NFL Week 1 odds, picks: Saints spoil Brady's Bucs debut, Bengals upset Chargers.Prisco reveals his NFL picks for Week 1, including why the Rams will beat the loaded Cowboys.Picking NFL games in Week 1 is always a challenge.Picking them this season is even tougher. Without preseason games and limited access in terms of practices and media availability, it's tough to get a gauge on where teams are as we head into the first week of games.Having that as an excuse, I offer my Week 1 picks, complete with an upset or two, one a big surprise even if the line isn't a big one.Maybe it's a good thing we haven't seen as much action or been able to get as much information as usual. Week 1 has been brutal at times in the past, so maybe things will change.I feel a 10-6 week against the spread. Who the heck needs the preseason? I am ready to roll.All odds are via William Hill Sportsbook.Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-9)This is a rematch of the AFC Divisional Round game that was won by the Chiefs in a blowout after rallying from 24 down. This will be a lot easier. The Texans have defensive issues that will show up here. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs roll.Pick: Chiefs 36, Texans 20.This is a long trip to open for Seattle, but they have done well in this role on the East Coast. This should be a fun, high-scoring game between two good quarterbacks. The Seahawks aren't the same team on defense, which is why I think the Falcons will win a shootout.Pick: Falcons 31, Seahawks 28.New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-6.5)The Bills are coming off a playoff season, while the Jets are trying to build something. Buffalo is the much better team. They will limit the Jets offense here and Josh Allen should have a big game against the Jets defense. Bills big.Pick: Bills 27, Jets 10.Las Vegas Raiders (-3) at Carolina Panthers.This should be a fun game to watch if you like offense. Carolina's young defense will get tested in this one, while the Oakland defense might need a few weeks to jell. Look for a lot of points. Teddy Bridgewater and Derek Carr both light it up with the Raiders getting a road victory.Pick: Raiders 34, Panthers 30.Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-3)It will be Mitch Trubisky at quarterback for the Bears, with Matt Stafford back healthy for the Lions after missing much of last season with a back injury. That's a big edge to the Lions. At home, Stafford should have a big day against the Chicago secondary. Lions take it.Pick: Lions 30, Bears 20.The Colts are the better team in this one, but this is a tough way to open on the road in a hot stadium against a division foe. Philip Rivers has played well in his career against the Jaguars and this young Jaguars defense has issues. Colts win it. But it's closer than expected.Pick: Colts 24, Jaguars 21.The Packers have had trouble at Minnesota, but they won there last year. This Vikings team isn't as good, which is why I think Aaron Rodgers will go in there and beat them again. The Packers will win a big, early-division game.Pick: Packers 28, Vikings 17.This will be Cam Newton at quarterback for the Pats with Tom Brady gone. Newton has impressed in camp, and I think he will be fine. The problem is the talent in other spots. Even so, the Pats will find a way to win this game against a young Miami team. But it won't be easy.Pick: Pats 21, Dolphins 20.The Ravens are the favorite in the AFC North, while the Browns are trying to get going under first-year coach Kevin Stefanski. The Ravens will again be explosive on offense, but the Browns should be good on that side as well. So which defense plays better? I will go with the Ravens, but the Browns blew them out in Baltimore last year. So be careful.Pick: Ravens 24, Browns 20.Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5) at Washington Football Team.It can be tough to open on the road in the division. It's a lot easier when the home team's quarterback has little experience, and there isn't a lot around him. That's why I think the Eagles will go into Washington and win by a touchdown over Dwayne Haskins and Washington. Carson Wentz will have a nice day against the Washington secondary.Pick: Eagles 27, Washington 17.This will be Joe Burrow's first game, which can be overwhelming for a rookie passer. And he's facing a talented Chargers defense. Even so, I don't think Burrow will be bothered by it. He will play well. The Chargers will start Tyrod Taylor and likely try and play ball control. I smell an upset for the Bengals.Pick: Bengals 23, Chargers 21.This is the game of the week, Tom Brady's first with the Bucs. But it's a tough way to open the season. The Saints are the better team and it's on the road. Brady has a ton of weapons, but the Saints can score too. I think Drew Brees gets the better of Brady in this one. Saints take it.Pick: Saints 28, Bucs 27.This is a be-careful game for the defending NFC champions. The 49ers have some injury issues on offense, which could limit them. The Cardinals should be much improved on defense this season, and I think the offense will be explosive. Even so, it's a tough opener. They hang around, but the 49ers win it.Pick: 49ers 26, Cardinals 23.The Cowboys seem to be loaded this season in Mike McCarthy's first as the team's coach. But this is a tough opener. The Rams were down last year, but Sean McVay will have them playing better this time around. It starts here. The Rams take it in a close one.Pick: Rams 21, Cowboys 17.Pittsburgh Steelers (-6) at New York Giants.The Steelers have Ben Roethlisberger back and he's facing a defense that has issues on the corner. Look for Roethlisberger to get off to a good start after missing much of last season. The Giants have talent on offense, but this Pittsburgh defense is special. Steelers will win a Monday night road game.Pick: Steelers 24, Giants 17.There will be no fans at this game, but the Broncos have an edge because of the altitude. I also think they will be able to slow down Derrick Henry, which is the key to the Titans offense. Drew Lock will get off to a good start in his first real season as the starter for Denver. Broncos take it.Pick: Broncos 27, Titans 23.NFL Picks: Week 1.In the past, NFL picks were presented with the caveat that the smart play would be to check on who I was picking, then choose the opposite.In all seriousness, that was merely an attempt at humor. Many in the media won’t admit this, but journalists don’t want to look too stupid when predicting the future. It’s a given that we’ll be wrong sometimes, but there’s some pride in at least being respectable in picks.The new wrinkle this year is that Maven/SI has created a spreadsheet so fans can check out the picks of several editors. My picks are also listed below.For what it’s worth, the Indianapolis Colts should consider their opener at the Jacksonville Jaguars as a bye week. Yeah, the Jags are going to be that bad. The one thing the franchise is good at is getting rid of quality players.But the Jags do have one advantage — they’re used to playing in a stadium with few fans.The Jags are allowing 25 percent capacity at TIAA Bank Field — and they still can’t fill that many seats. OK, bad joke.Good luck this season, NFL pickers.PhilB’s Picks.Texans at Chiefs — Chiefs.Seahawks at Falcons — Seahawks.Jets at Bills — Bills.Bears at Lions — Lions.Packers at Vikings — Packers.Dolphins at Patriots — Patriots.Eagles at Washington — Eagles.Raiders at Panthers — Raiders.Colts at Jaguars — Colts.Browns at Ravens — Ravens.Chargers at Bengals — Chargers.Buccaneers at Saints — Buccaneers.Cardinals at 49ers — 49ers.Cowboys at Rams — Cowboys.Steelers at Giants — Steelers.Titans at Broncos — Titans.Phillip B. 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